Asunción, Agencia IP.- The Survey of Expectations of Economic Variables (EVE) conducted by the Central Bank of Paraguay (BCP) in January 2024 shows that the median of inflation expectations reported by agents for the end of 2024 and the end of 2025 is 4.0%.
The bulletin also details that, for the next 12 months and the monetary policy horizon (between 18 and 24 months), they estimate inflation to be 4.0%.
For the current month, the median of monthly inflation expectations is 0.3%, lower than that recorded in January 2023 (0.4%) and lower than indicated last December for the present month (0.4%). For February 2024, agents also expect a monthly inflation of 0.3%.
On the other hand, the average expectation of monthly inflation for January 2024 is 0.4%, a percentage similar to the average expectation recorded during the same period in 2023 (0.4%). Thus, the annualized inflation expectation for 2024, constructed from the average expectation of monthly inflation, yields a value of 4.7%.
Regarding the evolution of the nominal exchange rate (NER) G/USD, agents’ expectation for January 2024 is G/USD 7,300 (lower than the reported previous month for the same month, G/USD 7,400). For February 2024, the NER is expected to be G/USD 7,317. By the end of 2024, the NER is expected to be G/USD 7,400; by 2025, economic agents expect the exchange rate to be G/USD 7,475.
As for the median of expectations for economic growth, respondents expect a GDP growth of 4.0% for 2024 and 2025.
Regarding the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), the expectation of economic agents for January 2024 is that it will be 6.50%, while for February 2024, it is expected to be 6.25%. By the end of 2024, they predict the MPR to be 5.50%, and by the end of 2025, the expectation is that the MPR will be 5.25%.